Android

We’ve been expecting for some time that phones using Google’s Android operating system were going to be serious players in the smartphone market, and sure enough, it’s happening! The number of devices available is set to jump from just one in August to as many as 30 by the end of the year. Three of the four major U.S. carriers are now offering Android devices – can you guess which one is not?

The fact that AT&T is not (yet?) selling an Android device is no accident – it’s almost certainly a concession they’ve had to make to Apple as part of their agreement to remain the sole U.S. carrier for the incredibly popular iPhone. The iPhone has been extremely good to AT&T, driving ARPU to over $60, the highest in the industry, and attracting millions of new subscribers, and they certainly want to keep Apple happy. And yet…are they missing out on an explosive new platform, and setting themselves up for rough times ahead?

The iPhone is unquestionably an amazing device, and it’s transformed the wireless phone market. The application-centric approach, multi-touch interface, and large, bright screen now define the standard for attractive wireless handsets. The flagship devices offered by all carriers now carry most of those characteristics, including Samsung’s Instinct line, Palm WebOS devices, RIM’s Blackberry Storm, HTC’s large-screen Windows Mobile devices – and of course, the first devices out the door with the Android operating system.

And yet – the iPhone’s basic design is now over two years old, a lifetime in the high-tech gadget industry, and Apple’s vise-like control over the platform may be strangling what could be even greater market growth as well as the natural evolution that any device needs to go through in order to remain popular over time.

Limiting the device to a single carrier puts it out of reach of millions who have long-term contracts or just don’t like AT&T’s spotty network coverage in their areas. Limiting the physical device to a single form factor makes it unattractive for people who want a physical keyboard, or a removable/replaceable battery, or a smaller device. And the stranglehold that Apple maintains over application submission and approval works only as long as there are no other alternatives for developers.

But the first-to-market advantage Apple and AT&T have enjoyed for two years is finally about to end.

The second round of Android devices now entering the market offer the same bright screen, application-centric interface and multi-touch manipulation that have made the iPhone so popular. They’re less-expensive than the iPhone and offer greater diversity in form factor with keyboards, removable batteries, and all the other bells-and-whistles that appear when a diversity of manufacturers work to differentiate themselves. They’re offered on multiple carriers, so new users don’t have to break a contract or leave a network that’s working for them.

And from a developer’s perspective, they’re SO much easier to work with! While Apple offers a nice SDK, it requires development to be done in Objective-C, a much harder language than the JavaScript and HTML of the Android platform. And best of all, there’s no draconian and arbitrary two-week review process before an application can be launched. That makes it much easier for developers to try new things and react quickly to bugs, suggestions and market changes. There are already over 10,000 applications available for the Android platform (still substantially less than the 85,000 Apple claims for the iPhone), and the rate of new developers starting Android applications has eclipsed that for iPhone developers.

The extra open-ness of the application platform will also benefit corporations and smaller organizations that want to create and deploy applications without having to hassle with Apple or make the apps available to the entire world. The corporate market is one that Apple has always struggled with, and the Android platform will rapidly squeeze whatever penetration the iPhone has been able to achieve thus far.

All in all – users, developers and organizations interested in a smart phone application should keep an eye on the Android. There will be a substantial shakeout in the market by Spring of next year, and Apple may suddenly find itself in a position it has avoided since the demise of the Macintosh – as a company playing catch-up in the high-tech marketplace.

What do you think? Will Android be as big as we expect, or will it remain just another second-tier device in an iPhone-dominated marketplace?